Airfares Are About to Explode — Here’s What Every Traveller Needs to Know Right Now
A Middle East conflict has doubled jet fuel prices in five weeks, triggering a wave of fare hikes, surcharges, and mass cancellations. Summer 2026 travel will cost more — and the window to lock in today’s prices is closing fast.
For most of the past decade, travellers have grown accustomed to the pleasant surprise of cheap flights. Airlines competed ferociously on price, budget carriers proliferated, and the cost of getting from one continent to another declined in real terms year after year. That era, at least for now, appears to be over.
In the weeks since a U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran triggered a regional conflict that closed the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil trade passes — jet fuel prices have more than doubled. The ripple effects have reached every airport, every booking screen, and very quickly, every traveller’s budget.
This is not a routine commodity fluctuation. Aviation analysts, airline executives, and government officials are already describing this as a structural shock to global travel that could reshape where people fly, when they fly, and whether they fly at all for months to come.
“We are in uncharted territory. This was simply not in anyone’s playbook for 2026.”
— Andrew Nocella, Chief Commercial Officer, United AirlinesA Choke Point for the World’s Energy Supply
The Strait of Hormuz is 34 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. Through those two slender shipping lanes passes roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day — about a fifth of all seaborne oil on earth. When Iran closed the strait in early March, the consequences for global energy markets were immediate and severe.
The International Energy Agency has called this “the greatest global energy security challenge in history.” Fuel typically represents 25 to 40 per cent of an airline’s operating costs. When that cost doubles in five weeks, the maths change with brutal speed. For many carriers, fuel’s share of operating costs has now jumped to 40–45 per cent.
What airlines are doing
Fare Increases, Capacity Cuts, and Surcharges — All at Once
Airlines have three levers when fuel costs spike: raise fares, add surcharges, or cut flights. The industry is pulling all three simultaneously, and the cumulative effect on passengers is significant.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned publicly that ticket prices may need to rise by 15 to 20 per cent to offset the fuel surge. The airline is targeting recovery of just 40 to 50 per cent of its higher fuel costs in Q2 2026, with that figure rising to 70–80 per cent by Q3 and potentially full recovery by Q4. United has already pushed through five separate fare increases in Q1 and also raised baggage fees.
A Bloomberg report published this week noted that airlines worldwide are raising prices for bags and seats, dialling back profit forecasts, and openly discussing route alliances as the cost pressure intensifies. United’s Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella declared the industry in “uncharted territory.”
What it means for your wallet
Surcharges Are Already Embedded in Today’s Fares
One crucial point that many travellers miss: when you book with cash, fuel surcharges are included in the displayed ticket price by law in most markets. You won’t see a separate line item labelled “fuel surcharge” — but you are paying it. The fare on your screen today is already higher than it was six weeks ago.
Ticket yields — what airlines earn per seat mile flown — rose approximately 12 per cent in early March and climbed closer to 18 per cent by the second half of the month. The increases are not theoretical projections. They are already embedded in the fares showing on your booking screen.
On long-haul international routes, the impact is sharpest. European carriers have added €20 to €35 per passenger per segment on many routes. In the Asia-Pacific market, surcharges have in some cases tripled. Japan Airlines, for instance, is moving surcharges from Zone H to Zone Q from May 1 — nearly doubling the surcharge on Japan-to-Europe tickets to JPY 56,000 and on Japan-to-Hawaii routes to JPY 34,700.
For points and miles travellers, the picture is not as straightforward as it might appear: many airline loyalty programmes apply the same surcharges to award tickets, increasing the cash portion of a redemption even when miles are used. British Airways award tickets redeemed on partner flights can carry hundreds of dollars in carrier-imposed fees even when the miles cost is modest.
“Even the cheapest of cheap tickets have gone up in price. If you have any desire to travel this summer and have any idea of where you want to go, get those flights locked in at the price you see today.”
— Katy Nastro, Spokesperson, Going (travel app)Demand, for now, has held. United’s Kirby noted that bookings have not collapsed despite the fare increases already in place — particularly in premium cabins, where business and premium economy travel continues at pace. The concern for airlines is whether sustained increases will eventually cause leisure travellers to pull back. Some economic uncertainty was already affecting demand before the conflict began, with Deloitte’s 2026 Travel Industry Outlook noting that demand was “showing signs of strain.”
The outlook
No Quick Resolution in Sight
The path to lower fares runs directly through the Strait of Hormuz — and that passage remains effectively closed or heavily restricted to most Western-flagged shipping. Even if a full and durable resolution were announced today, IATA Director General Willie Walsh has stated that it would still take months to restore jet fuel supply chains to pre-crisis levels. Refineries, tanker logistics, and storage infrastructure cannot restock overnight.
For summer 2026 — the peak travel season — meaningful fuel cost relief is, at best, unlikely. Airlines like Cathay Pacific and ANA have already announced higher surcharges for the coming months, and United’s own models project only full cost recovery by Q4. Most travellers planning summer trips should assume the current pricing environment is the baseline, not a temporary spike.
Some carriers have limited near-term protection through fuel hedging contracts — IAG (parent of British Airways and Iberia) has said its hedging covers short-to-medium term exposure and has not yet raised headline ticket prices. But those contracts expire, and the broader industry consensus is that elevated fares are the new normal for at least the next two to three quarters.
The geopolitical picture adds further uncertainty. As of late April, Iran has announced plans to pass a law requiring toll payments from all vessels transiting the strait, and restricting traffic from nations it deems hostile. Even in a best-case scenario, the era of the strait as a free and unrestricted global oil highway appears to be over for the foreseeable future.
Practical guidance
Seven Things Smart Travellers Should Do Right Now
Strategies for navigating higher airfares in 2026
- Book now, not later. AAA, Going, and virtually every major travel advisor agree: if you have firm summer plans, secure your flights immediately. Surcharges are reviewed upward every two to four weeks. The fare you see today is almost certainly cheaper than the one you’ll see in May or June.
- Avoid basic economy on cash bookings. Book the cheapest fully changeable or refundable fare — not a locked-in basic economy ticket. If prices drop, you can rebook and capture the difference as a credit or refund.
- Consider shoulder season travel. Midweek departures and shoulder-season windows — May and September — tend to be less affected by surcharges than peak summer dates. The pricing differential between a mid-June and a mid-September transatlantic fare is likely wider than usual this year.
- Use points strategically — but check the fees. If cash prices are rising, points redemptions offer increasing relative value. However, verify the cash surcharge portion before booking. Seek out programmes with capped or minimal surcharges: American AAdvantage, Alaska MileagePlan, and some Air France/KLM Flying Blue redemptions are generally cleaner on this front.
- Watch your route, not just your airline. Routes through Gulf airspace are facing the most disruption and price pressure. Flights to and from Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi — and connections through those hubs — carry higher risk of surcharge increases and schedule volatility. Consider alternate routings where possible.
- Buy travel insurance with trip disruption cover. With more than 50,000 flights already cancelled globally, the probability of disruption on any given itinerary is materially higher than in a normal year. A policy covering trip delay, cancellation, and rerouting costs is worth the premium.
- Consider rail or driving for shorter trips. Airlines are reducing short-haul capacity significantly — Lufthansa alone is cutting 20,000 short-haul flights through October. For trips under 700 kilometres, rail is increasingly competitive on both price and reliability, and entirely immune to jet fuel surcharges.
The fundamental calculus of travel has shifted in 2026. The combination of genuine supply disruption, reduced capacity, and airlines determined to rebuild their margins after years of turbulence means that waiting and hoping for lower fares carries real risk this year. The travellers who plan ahead, stay flexible, and book now are the ones most likely to come out with a summer trip intact — and at a price they can live with.
